Sandeels, gas bills and the £28 billion – what the start of 2024 can tell us about policy influencing in the year ahead

By Sarah Whitebread

2024 is set to be a big year in politics. For those seeking policy change and political influence, the period up to an election can be a challenge. Aren’t all the MPs just distracted by local campaigning?  When does the manifesto influencing window close? Is there any point holding events in Parliament?

January was a busy month for environmental policy developments, and Seahorse has met with numerous parliamentarians and hosted events for several clients to understand more about the year ahead. February marks a good moment to take stock and share lessons learned for advocacy over the next few months.

Though the political mood feels stagnant, policy making is still happening

Whilst the Government may be struggling to land an overarching narrative and is languishing in the polls, that has not stopped Ministers pressing on with policy announcements. The worry that the business of Whitehall might simply grind to a halt in the months approaching an election has not, at least yet, come to pass. At Defra in particular, new Secretary of State Steve Barclay has been keen to make an impact, starting the year with a set of announcements at the Oxford Farming conference designed to boost confidence in the Government’s replacement for the Common Agricultural Policy. The announcements to increase funding for various management practises farmers can carry out to benefit nature on their farms were widely welcomed. Then came the announcements only last week that have been long awaited – the decision to ban industrial sandeel fishing in the English north sea. This is a huge win for nature organisations who have been campaigning for 25 years for a ban, which is essential to help seabirds like puffins that depend on sandeels for their diet and are globally threatened.  In addition, the decision to ban bottom trawling in 13 more marine protected areas is a hugely welcome step. Announcements of big policy decisions like these show the machinery of Government is still working, and where policies have been through the consultation process and are ready to go, with Ministerial will, they can still get over the line. Those advocating for change should be on the look-out for opportunities to make progress. If there are near-finalised policies that can offer the Government a significant win in a specific sector, it’s worth making that case.

Caution is the word of the day for the shadow teams

The next lesson is that we can expect continued caution from Labour. Whilst they have started setting out some policy commitments in more detail (see Peter Kyle on life sciences recently, for example) the internal wrangling over their Green Prosperity Plan and ultimate ditching of the £28 billion spending commitment shows just how nervous they are to attacks on their policy platform. Despite a handsome 20 point lead in many polls, it’s clear the view amongst party strategists is they can’t afford to give anything away. The last few years of volatility in British politics has shown just how quickly huge poll leads can be shattered. Ratings for Theresa May’s Government at the start of the 2017 election were the largest lead of any Conservative Prime Minister in modern history, and she went on to lose her majority after a bruising election campaign she would live to regret. Labour are determined to avoid any policy commitments that could lead them down that path, in particular those that risk jeopardising their economic credibility. But whether committed to the £28 billion or not, leveraging investment to deliver growth through green infrastructure is still crucial for Labour in delivering their five missions. They will still want to hear from organisations that can help them achieve this. With the manifesto process nearing completion, Labour influencing should focus on the shadow teams and new candidates, several of whom have strong environmental credentials and will be looking to make a mark in the next parliament.

And what of the Lib Dems? It’s been a difficult start to the year for the party, with the Conservatives attempting to weaponise, with at least partial success, the involvement of Ed Davey in the Post Office scandal during his time as a coalition minister. So despite lying low in the national press, the activity of Lib Dem MPs gives a clear picture of their priorities – local campaigns that resonate with the voters in their constituencies. Layla Moran’s Westminster Hall debate this week on the performance of Thames Water in Oxfordshire is a good example of this. Like Labour, the Lib Dems are highly focussed on winning their target seats at the next election, and fearful of making any policy commitments that could throw that off course.

The lesson then, when trying to engage Labour or Lib Dem policy makers, is to remember the imperative of electoral success will guide any decisions they make. A good approach could be to focus on building relationships and making the case that your issue is important and warrants government time in the next parliament, without worrying too much if no bold commitments are made prior to the election itself.

The facts still matter

A final thing we’ve noticed this month has come through our work on the Offshore Petroleum Licensing bill, and that is the value of promoting fact-based arguments, even if this can be a long, at times demoralising business. The bill was initially touted by the Prime Minister as a way to help consumers with their energy bills, but thanks to consistent briefing from Uplift and others, it wasn’t long before the Energy Secretary Claire Coutinho admitted on BBC Breakfast that that was not the case. The debate has now shifted to the argument that the bill will improve energy security, but again, the coverage rebuffing those claims has been widespread, leading to embarrassing questions for Government Ministers on Question Time and BBC Factcheck articles refuting the claims. Whilst behaviour economists argue rightly that facts don’t always win arguments, these victories show that when you have robust evidence on your side, communicating it clearly and repeatedly can still win results.

You can make change this year

Though it might seem like politics is a little stagnant in the run up to the election, the reality is  you can still make an impact this year. Policy wins are happening, opposition and Government MPs are still keen to engage, and it’s likely still a good few months until Rishi goes to the palace. So let’s not write 2024 off yet.