Treading water: where next for political engagement?

Even before the historic by-election results, party conference season and ‘cost of net zero’ speech from the Prime Minister, there was a sense that the parties were pivoting to ‘general election’ mode. Momentum on policy design has lost ground to sound bite commitments that will get cut through on the doorstep. However, with reports that an election could arrive as late as winter 2024/2025, there’s a real risk of stalling progress on critical decarbonisation and nature issues. Taking a temperature check on the parties and sense checking how messaging aligns with party direction is key to making the most of the next twelve months.   

Where are the three main parties? 

Labour 

Labour haven’t been spooked by the prospect of Net Zero becoming a wedge issue. With a strong ‘Green Industrial Strategy’ narrative cutting through the party conference season, and Rachel Reeves’ frequent reference to wanting to be ‘the first green chancellor’, it’s clear the opportunities of decarbonisation, particularly on energy generation and the grid will be a defining campaign message.  

However, we’re still to see more detail. Labour’s cautious listen and learn approach reflects a tightly controlled Labour team wary of anything that can be mobilised against them. Shadow Defra Secretary Steve Reed MP hinted at a plan for nature on conference panels, this is important, with so much resting on the successful bridging of nature restoration and infrastructure development, the plan should signpost Labour’s ambition in this area.  

Conservatives 

The three policy announcements during Sunak’s Party Conference speech, the scrapping of HS2, smoking ban and reform of T-levels, don’t hang together to give a coherent message of what drives the Conservatives beyond the image of fiscal responsibility. The Conservatives insist they will continue with the set course of action despite the by-election. This shows their intention is on being fiscally focused, and prioritising social wedge issues and small boats. Their caution lies in a desire to prevent the accusation that they failed to deliver their promises by the election.  

The upcoming King’s Speech will be a crucial signifier as to whether Sunak thinks he can commit to ‘long-term’ fiscal responsibility while keeping the party aligned. The Prime Minister’s announcement of an imminent nature speech and reports he has decided to scrap legislation that would have positioned environmental protections at odds with development indicate the environment could still be seen as a Conservative vote winner – albeit as separate to net zero.  

Liberal Democrats 

Despite predictions of a vote split in Mid-Bedfordshire and a vote share increase, there was no major Lib Dem vote grab. Liberal Democrat conference, where member voting and policy development is integral, was all about building a brand that could be reinforced for campaigning. What was clear at their conference is that their political targets will be rural seats. Their unique third-pole position means they will be using this time to consolidate detailed policy asks and give membership a clear steer of priorities. The party can look at ambitious asks that will help build their profile and positioning regardless of the next government make-up. 

So, what does this mean for engagement? 

Campaigns and organisations that want their research, real world data, and good ideas to be considered should highlight how they can help the parties navigate their own distinct aims and key questions. 

Labour: What can we commit to that won’t cost anything? 

Labour’s green approach still lacks detail. It’s clear the intention is to ‘make the most of the opportunity of green industrial revolution/Green jobs’ but notably the relationship between nature and climate, and other policy areas remains largely siloed. 

This shows the distance that charities and policy makers have to go to be on the same page as the Labour Party. It’s an important factor for third sector campaigns and businesses for how they need to link their asks into the mainstream jobs and growth agenda and not lose sight of the difference in language when speaking to Labour versus the Conservatives. Labour’s challenge is finding policy announcements that won’t break the bank, so outlining what problem policy ideas address, costing and their impact on the 5 Labour themes are key. 

Conservatives: What can we do to cut costs now? 

The Conservatives will need to spend the next year keeping party factions at bay, while navigating an electorally vulnerable backbench. The shift to positioning climate and nature action at odds with development looks set to continue, particularly because it appeals to a very vocal active section of the party.  

Rather than try to overturn sceptic opinion, focus on contacting those within the party who truly appreciate climate and nature action. Arm those who are already onside with the evidence they need to highlight that certain interventions could reduce costs for households or cause public facing disputes that could split the party further. With high numbers of MPs standing down, many have little to lose. 

Lib Dems: What’s a good idea that will stick in people’s minds 

Environment (river pollution) and farming are at the core of the Lib Dem offer. For the next year, engagement with the Lib Dems is a branding exercise to get cut through. With the prospect of the Conservatives or Labour needing Lib Dem support to govern, the Lib Dems need effective unique policy positions that will be recognisable to voters. Organisations should think about how their asks can energise and inspire the nation.  

Conclusion 

With milestones like the King’s Speech and the Autumn Fiscal Statement around the corner, the chop and change of political appetite can be demoralising and exhausting. But with time running out to create impact, campaigners shouldn’t be afraid to change tactics and recalibrate their approach to meet their audience’s needs. Ultimately, MPs are moving into General Election mode and that means voters come first and party messaging takes precedence. Any campaign must ensure ideas align with electoral goals, or risk getting left behind.